I already put this in the basebal forum but seeing as it isnt baseball season yet it might get some extra looks here:
Last season, my friend and i came up with a baseball system that failed mostly due to bankrolls that were too small. In theory i think it can work and i would like some input from the posters here.
Ok for bankroll's sake lets say you start with 10,000 and make your base 200. The goal for each day is to make .02 of your base as profit. You do this by choosing 2 teams at the beginning of the season that are built to win a majority of their games, not play eachother (this isnt too important), and are not as subseptible to a long losing streak. Off the top of my head, this year i'd pick the Yankees and Dodgers, Cardinals or Mets (one from each league).
On day one you'd be trying to turn your 200 into 204 (1.02^1 *200) by betting on the money line of each of those teams--lets say theyre at -200 (which is probably going to end up being the average.)--so you risk 8 (4 to win 2 on each game) total.
On day two you'd be trying to turn your 200 into 208.08 (1.02^2 * 200) regardless of whether you won or lost the day before. If you had lost you'd be looking at a base of 192 and risking 16.08 on each game to win 8.04 give or take. If you had won or the teams split it wouldnt be as large of a margin (this is the reason for having two teams and also for having a much larger bankroll than your base).
If multiplied over an entire season (for arguments sake i'm going to only do 155 games and days when one team is off you risk all on the team playing) the formula would look like: 1.02^155* 200 and should net you 4305.82 in profit for the season.
If the percentage was 5 instead of 2, it would net you a staggering 384920.77.
Barring a losing streak and if you have a large enough bankroll i think both options and any in between could be very profitable--i, however, do not have access to a bankroll anywhere near what i'd nead to attemp this at this time. Any feedback or suggestions would be very appreciated
Last season, my friend and i came up with a baseball system that failed mostly due to bankrolls that were too small. In theory i think it can work and i would like some input from the posters here.
Ok for bankroll's sake lets say you start with 10,000 and make your base 200. The goal for each day is to make .02 of your base as profit. You do this by choosing 2 teams at the beginning of the season that are built to win a majority of their games, not play eachother (this isnt too important), and are not as subseptible to a long losing streak. Off the top of my head, this year i'd pick the Yankees and Dodgers, Cardinals or Mets (one from each league).
On day one you'd be trying to turn your 200 into 204 (1.02^1 *200) by betting on the money line of each of those teams--lets say theyre at -200 (which is probably going to end up being the average.)--so you risk 8 (4 to win 2 on each game) total.
On day two you'd be trying to turn your 200 into 208.08 (1.02^2 * 200) regardless of whether you won or lost the day before. If you had lost you'd be looking at a base of 192 and risking 16.08 on each game to win 8.04 give or take. If you had won or the teams split it wouldnt be as large of a margin (this is the reason for having two teams and also for having a much larger bankroll than your base).
If multiplied over an entire season (for arguments sake i'm going to only do 155 games and days when one team is off you risk all on the team playing) the formula would look like: 1.02^155* 200 and should net you 4305.82 in profit for the season.
If the percentage was 5 instead of 2, it would net you a staggering 384920.77.
Barring a losing streak and if you have a large enough bankroll i think both options and any in between could be very profitable--i, however, do not have access to a bankroll anywhere near what i'd nead to attemp this at this time. Any feedback or suggestions would be very appreciated
